The best season of the year
First, before we get started, let me point out this interesting story from the spring. If UNC can capture some of Palbo's fighting spirirt, maybe this year will be a good one.
Football season is upon us and I'm getting pretty excited, though this year may ultimately bring another 4 months of frustration. I've read up on the team and what the "experts" are saying, and it's mostly positive. Rivals has us ranked in the top 50 (47th) and said we could come in a close second to VaTech in our division. The ESPN guys both picked UNC to make a bowl, which would also likely mean a winning season.
However, I know our team better than those folks and I can see ominous signs. The problems at quarterback (18 interceptions) are not problems that often go away. Our defense lost a good coordinator and replaced him with the coordinator of last year's worst-ranked defense in the nation (Minnesota). On the positive side, our running game should be vastly improved which, along with the defense, is the key to our team this year. Greg Little could be our first 1,000-yard rusher since Jonathan Linton in 1997.
But really, you never know how the team's going to play until you see them on the field. So last year, I made my prediction based on the result of the openning game. This year, I think the second game of the season will be more telling. I'll post my Rutgers ruberic here, and then a game-by-game breakdown after the "continue reading" cut.
- If we shut out Rutgers, and score more than 21 points, watch out, because we could win 9 games this season.
- If we win vs. Rutgers in a low-scoring game (21 points or less), we will go 8-4.
- If we win definitively in a high-scoring game (more than 21 points), we will go 7-5.
- If we lose in a close, low-scoring game (< 8 pt. margin), we will go 7-5.
- If we aren't that close in a defensive struggle (> 7 pt. margin), we'll go 6-6.
- If we lose a close one in a shootout, we'll go 5-7.
- If we aren't close in a blowout, we'll go 4-8.
- Finally, subtract one win for every two turnovers we have in the game.
Game by Game Predictions
(these predictions are trumped by the Rutgers ruberic, if we get an unexpected result in that game)
Week 1: UNC over McNeese State by 18.
Week 2: Bye week.
Week 3: Rutgers over UNC by 12.
Week 4: VaTech over UNC by 14. Tech will be better than UNC, but still finding its legs in the early part of the season. The game will be close until the 4th quarter.
Week 5: Miami over UNC by 3. I think UNC will be better than Miami this year, but Miami will be lucky to squeak out a home win.
Week 6: UNC over UConn by 10. This will be closer than it should be, just because they always are.
Week 7: Notre Dame over UNC by 6. Has Notre Dame done anything to make us scared of them yet? A relatively soft oppent the week before coupled with a big game environment at home could help the Heels pull off a mid-season surprise. Our 2-3 record will also inspire little motivation for Notre Dame after what could be a surprisingly tough home game against Stanford. Still, the Heels have not shown that they can win the big game yet, so I can't in good conscience pick the Heels to win this one.
Week 8: UNC over UVA by 10. I said it first. Forget Notre Dame. This will be the game of the season for Tar Heel football fans. UNC will go into the 4th quarter with a comfortable lead, and Butch Davis will not call a pass into the flat. We will run out the clock and we will exorcize the demons of 1996.
Week 9: BC over UNC by 7. BC will be decent this year, and we're bound to stumble at some point.
Week 10: Bye week.
Week 11: UNC over GaTech by 14. It will take more than a summer to institute the triple option, and with an extra week to prepare, UNC will take advantage.
Week 12: UMD over UNC by 10. Once again, I have to admit to myself that the Heels are going to lose some games this year that they should win.
Week 13: UNC over NCSU by 9. UNC will be playing to keep a bowl dream alive at home.
Week 14: UNC over Duke by 17. No number of Manning boys in the sky box is going to change this result.
OVER ALL: UNC will go 6-6 and return to a minor bowl.
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