Formula for Greatest Ever
Thinking about Bonds's place in history got me to thinKing about nerdy baseball statistics stuff. Baseball buffs seem to continually search for one ultimate stat that would describe a player's value and allow us to definitively say who's the best of all time. Well I'm coming up with a formula for such a stat in three parts, and over the next few days, I'm going to explore each of these components. Of Course, a stat like this would have to include so many factors that it would be very difficult to compile, so if there are any sabermetrics people out there who would care to calculate these stats for a few famous players, I would love to see your results. Until then we will just debate what goes into a formula for greatness.
So without further ado, here's my meta-formula to determine a player's greatness:
(A - B) x C = greatness
where:
A = offensive value measured in "adjusted forced runs,"
B = defensive liability measured in "equivalent unforced runs allowed,"
C = "adjusted run value" based on league and era.
In the next few days I will outline how I would calculate A, B, and C. Stay tuned....
Meanwhile, two caveats:
1. No stat can account for the smallest things a player can do to help his team, like swinging through a pitch to allow a teammate to steal, backing up another outfielder, or being a good lookerroom presence. These qualities are either too immeasurable (lockerroom effect), or have such a small or rare impact within the enormous quantity of stats (backing up), that I have ruled them negiligible in this discussion/formulation.
2. I plan to attempt to weight the offensive and defensive components of the formula so that an average pitcher's defensive stats, for example, are balanced with an average position player's offensive stats. Thus, all players can be equally compared in this computation. American League pitchers are automatically assigned an "A" value of 0, so players like Roger Clemens are automatically handicapped by the designated hitter rule. If you're upset about this, go complain to your league for having a stupid unnecessary rule.
Ok, I may be getting in over my head on this one. I am sure not going to crunch the #s like you are!And sorry Miles, that the only person talking baseball with you is a girl!! :)
I don't think anybody currently playing is the best player ever. Sure there are some great ones, but I don't think they hold a candle to folks like Shoeless Joe, Mays, or even Ripken Jr for that matter. (And looking at Shoeless Joe's stats from the 1919 Series, I think it's REALLY hard to prove that he did anything to throw it...shame that he's not in Cooperstown. JMHO.) Even as hateful as Ty Cobb was, you can't argue with the numbers he put up.
Also, I think you should take into account the fact that a lot of folks -- like Shoeless Joe, or Honus Wagner, or name your player -- played when spitballs etc. were still legal. And, how far back in time are you going?
Who do you think is the greatest manager ever?
Fun topic. Been a while since I talked baseball with anyone.
Edited to add that I see you are going to adjust for league and era.
BTW, I wouldn't have crossed through stupid when referring to the DH rule.
This is just about my first moment of thinking about anything other than Anna. (Although I will be an extremely happy Mama if it turns out that she will like to talk about nerdy baseball stuff with me one day. I know my chances are slim...)
I just want to say that I think this topic is really, really fun and that I can't wait to read about the details. I also would like to say that caveat #1 is one of the reasons that discussions like this one are so fun. I completely sympathize with why you'd have to eliminate considerations like those for the purposes of a stat driven examination, but I love it that the story of baseball, the game that is SO enamored and empowered with the numbers, still cannot perfectly be told using them.
Looking forward to the follow-up post(s)!
So, why do we spend all this time when the man who refers to himself in the third person is the best of all time. You gave him a "shout-out" in a previous post, but these posts are kind of pointless. When Rickey Henderson set foot on a baseball field back in the day and became the greatest ever, the discussion wasn't pretty much over - it was over, yo. Second place goes to Fernando Valenzuela.
Hey Burly -- Fernando I could sort of see. Rickey or Barry? No thanks. Like I said, give me a hard-working, no frills, Toyota like Cal Ripken. Don't want a Hummer.
Miles, I look forward to your results.
Also, I think everyone in this thread would really enjoy this blog: http://thesoulofbaseball.blogspot.com
It is by Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star. Just some fun baseball discussions by someone who loves baseball and is a talented writer.
Miles, I look forward to your results.
Also, I think everyone in this thread would really enjoy this blog: http://thesoulofbaseball.blogspot.com
It is by Joe Posnanski of the Kansas City Star. Just some fun baseball discussions by someone who loves baseball and is a talented writer.